IMF warns of recession: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2025 to 3.0%, marking a 0.2 percentage point reduction from the earlier estimate of 3.2%. This downgrade is attributed to the drop in global crude oil prices, a major factor driving Nigeria’s economy. The updated figures were released in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, presented in Washington, DC, during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. The report highlights global and regional economic trends, emphasizing the ongoing vulnerability of oil-dependent economies.
The IMF also forecasts a slight decline in growth across sub-Saharan Africa, with projections falling from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025. However, a modest recovery is expected in 2026, with growth projected at 4.2%.
Still on IMF warns of recession
Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, is highlighted in the report as one of the major economies impacted by falling oil prices. The IMF has also lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Nigeria by 0.3 percentage points. Similar economic difficulties are reported in other African nations, with South Africa’s growth projections being downgraded by 0.5 percentage points for 2025 and 0.3 percentage points for 2026. These revisions reflect weakened economic momentum after a sluggish 2024, growing uncertainty, the rise in protectionist policies, and the effects of a global economic slowdown.
In a more drastic adjustment, the IMF has cut South Sudan’s 2025 growth forecast by an alarming 31.5 percentage points. This sharp decline is due to delays in the resumption of oil production after a major pipeline was damaged, severely impacting the country’s revenue and export capacity.
The IMF’s outlook highlights the vulnerability of economies heavily reliant on natural resources and the ongoing risks posed by global market volatility.
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