Expect tropical storms May: Hurricane Season Approaches: Can We Expect Tropical Storms in May?
As May approaches, the question on many minds is whether tropical storms and hurricanes will form early this year. Although the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1, tropical storms and hurricanes can sometimes develop in May.
Historical Context
According to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach, 32 named storms have formed in May since records began in 1851. Many of these storms have formed recently, with 11 named storms developing during May between 2007 and 2021. However, there haven’t been any May storm formations in the past three years.
Still on Expect tropical storms May
Shifting Hurricane Season
A 2022 study co-authored by Klotzbach found that the Atlantic hurricane season is shifting earlier, likely due to warming ocean temperatures. The study suggests that the considerable warming of oceans in the western Atlantic during April and May in recent years is contributing to this trend.
Characteristics of Early Season Storms
While there has been a trend toward more early season storms, these storms have generally been weak. According to Klotzbach, there haven’t been any hurricanes in May since Alma in 1970.
Geographic Location of Early Season Storms
WeatherTiger meteorologist Ryan Truchelut notes that early season threats, while historically uncommon, have tended to focus on the eastern Gulf or southeastern U.S. coasts. All of the May storms that have formed in the Atlantic basin have developed on or after May 10.
Should the Hurricane Season Start Earlier?
In 2021, the National Weather Service assembled a team to study the dates of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the possibility of moving the start date to May 15. However, the team determined that the current range of dates already covers 96% of tropical cyclone activity, and moving the start date two weeks earlier would only add an additional 1% of activity.
World Meteorological Organization’s Stance
Based on these statistics, the World Meteorological Organization is not actively pursuing the modification of the start date of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Outlook for May
At this point, there aren’t any model signals for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic in the next two weeks, according to Klotzbach. Truchelut agrees, noting that there’s no day-to-day forecast skill to say anything about pre-season potential tropical activity at this lead time.
Conclusion
While tropical storms and hurricanes can form in May, the likelihood is relatively low, and the World Meteorological Organization is not considering changing the official start date of hurricane season. As the official start date approaches, residents in hurricane-prone areas should remain vigilant and prepared for the possibility of early season storms.
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