Trump’s Ukraine Peace Efforts: Donald Trump’s presidency has brought a mix of approaches to ending the Russia-Ukraine war, but his efforts have been marred by inconsistency and favoritism towards Moscow. In mid-February, the Trump administration started rolling out its strategy, but it was off to a rocky start. Administration officials prematurely endorsed Russian positions on Ukraine’s territory and NATO membership, even before the warring parties agreed to negotiate. This move has raised questions about the logic behind such a decision.
*Carrots for Russia, Sticks for Ukraine*
Trump’s approach has been characterized by showering the Kremlin with concessions while applying pressure on Ukraine. He broke ranks with Western leaders by agreeing to meet with Putin and rejected language in the G7 and UN General Assembly that condemned Russia as the aggressor. The administration also defunded Voice of America and Radio Liberty, which aimed to bring real news to the Russian information space. Furthermore, Russia was allowed to escape tariff-free when the US launched its global trade war.
Meanwhile, Ukraine faced significant pressure. Vice President JD Vance and Trump ambushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a February 28 Oval Office meeting, initially intended to secure US access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine. The US subsequently ceased arms shipments and intelligence-sharing for Kyiv, only resuming them after Ukraine agreed to the administration’s ceasefire proposal. The US also presented Ukraine with a redrafted minerals agreement that heavily favored American interests.
Still on Trump’s Ukraine Peace Efforts
Trump’s Special Envoy and Russia’s Intentions
Trump’s special envoy, Steven Witkoff, a businessman with no diplomatic experience, has met Putin three times. Witkoff seems to have taken Putin’s words at face value, reportedly advocating for Russia to control several Ukrainian regions, including Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, despite Russia not occupying all these territories.
*Potential Steps to End the War*
To effectively negotiate an end to the war, Trump could consider the following steps ¹:
– *Close Loopholes in Economic Sanctions*: Work with the European Union and other partners to prevent Western high-tech goods from slipping into Russia.
– *Broaden Sanctions on Russia’s Shadow Fleet*: Target Russia’s oil tankers and benefit American oil producers by interrupting illicit shipments.
– *Seize Frozen Russian Assets*: Press G7 and EU partners to confiscate $300 billion in frozen Russian Central Bank assets and use them to support Ukraine.
– *Fund Additional Military Assistance*: Ask Congress to provide more military aid to Kyiv, which would also boost American domestic defense production.
*Concerns About Trump’s Approach*
Trump’s approach has raised concerns about his seriousness in ending the war. Despite expressing anger towards Russia, he has taken no concrete actions. His comments on Russia’s missile strike in Ukraine, where he blamed Zelensky and Joe Biden for the war, have also sparked criticism. Given Putin’s history and Russia’s continued aggression, it’s unlikely that Ukraine will accept Russia’s draconian terms. Trump’s lack of a disciplined negotiating approach and overt favoritism towards Moscow suggest that his attempts to fulfill his promise of ending the war may be failing.
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